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United States census

The United States census (plural censuses or census) is a census that is legally mandated by the Constitution of the United States. It takes place every ten years. The first census after the American Revolution was taken in 1790 under Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson. There have been 23 federal censuses since that time.[1] The census includes territories of the United States.[2] The United States Census Bureau is responsible for conducting the census.

The most recent national census took place in 2020; the next census is scheduled for 2030. Since 2013, the Census Bureau began discussions on using technology to aid data collection starting with the 2020 census.[3] In 2020, every household received an invitation to complete the census over the Internet, by phone or by paper questionnaire.[4][5] For years between the decennial censuses, the Census Bureau issues estimates made using surveys and statistical models, in particular, the Population Estimates Program and American Community Survey.

The United States census is distinct from the Census of Agriculture, which is no longer the responsibility of the Census Bureau. It is also distinct from local censuses conducted by some states or local jurisdictions.

Legal basis

The U.S. census is mandated by Article I, Section 2 of the United States Constitution, which states: "Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States... according to their respective Numbers... . The actual Enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years".[a][1] Section 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment amended Article I, Section 2 to include that the "respective Numbers" of the "several States" will be determined by "counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed." The United States Census Bureau (officially the Bureau of the Census, as defined in Title 13 U.S.C. § 11) is responsible for the United States census. The Bureau of the Census is part of the United States Department of Commerce.

Title 13 of the United States Code governs how the census is conducted and how its data are handled. Information is confidential as per 13 U.S.C. § 9. The census law, coupled with the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 (Title 18 of the United States Code, Sections 3551, 3559, and 3571), provides for penalties of up to $5,000 for not responding or for willfully providing false answers to any question.

Procedure

A woman with a Hollerith pantograph punch. The keyboard is for the 1940 U.S. census population card.
This 1940 census publicity photo shows a census worker in Fairbanks, Alaska. The dog musher remains out of earshot to maintain confidentiality.
Census outreach flyers hang at Sure We Can - redemption center in Bushwick, Brooklyn - 2020

Decennial U.S. census figures are based on actual counts of persons dwelling in U.S. residential structures. They include citizens, non-citizen legal residents, non-citizen long-term visitors and undocumented immigrants. The Census Bureau bases its decision about whom to count on the concept of usual residence. Usual residence, a principle established by the Census Act of 1790, is defined as the place a person lives and sleeps most of the time. The Census Bureau uses special procedures to ensure that those without conventional housing are counted. Data from these operations are not as accurate as data obtained from traditional procedures.[6]

In instances where the bureau is unsure of the number of residents at an address after a field visit, its population characteristics are inferred from its nearest similar neighbor (hot-deck imputation). This practice has effects across many areas, but is seen by some as controversial.[7] The practice was ruled constitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court in Utah v. Evans.

Certain American citizens living overseas are specifically excluded from being counted in the census even though they may vote. Only Americans living abroad who are "federal employees (military and civilian) and their dependents living overseas with them" are counted. "Private U.S. citizens living abroad who are not affiliated with the federal government (either as employees or their dependents) will not be included in the overseas counts. These overseas counts are used solely for reapportioning seats in the U.S. House of Representatives".[8]

According to the Census Bureau, "Census Day" has been April 1 since 1930. Previously, from 1790 to 1820, the census counted the population as of the first Monday in August. It moved to June 1 in 1830, (June 2 in 1890), April 15 in 1910, and January 1 in 1920.[9]

Because people are born, die, and move during the year, the census counts people where they were or expect to be living on this specific reference date in an attempt to get a coherent snapshot and avoid double counting. The actual census-taking begins before this date and extends for months thereafter. In 2020, the earliest responses were collected starting January 21 in remote parts of Alaska, and March 12 for most Americans.[10]

Applications

In addition to its primary purpose of reapportioning the House of Representatives, census data are used for a wide variety of applications, including:

Controversy

California Governor Gavin Newsom encouraging people to complete the 2020 United States census.

The census has historically and up to the present been controversial due to its role in reapportioning political representation.[11] In the 1850s, census planners suppressed information about slavery due to pressure from Southern lawmakers.[11] The results of the 1920 census were ignored and no reapportionment took place, as rural lawmakers feared losing power to urban areas.[11] In the 1940s, census officials were involved in organizing Japanese-American internment.[11]

The census is controversial; up to one-third of all U.S. residents do not respond to repeated reminders. In recent censuses, the nonresponse rate has been less than 1% (it was about 0.4% in 2010), but during the 2020 census, as of September 11, many experts believed the nonresponse rate could reach double digits.[12] By October 19, 2020, all states had topped a 99% response rate, with all but one state having a nonresponse rate below 0.1%.[13]

The Census Bureau estimates that in 1970 over six percent of African Americans went uncounted, whereas only around two percent of European Americans[14] went uncounted. Democrats often argue that modern sampling techniques should be used so that more accurate and complete data can be inferred. Republicans often argue against such sampling techniques, stating the U.S. Constitution requires an "actual enumeration" for apportionment of House seats, and that political appointees would be tempted to manipulate the sampling formulas.[15]

Groups like the Prison Policy Initiative assert that the census practice of counting prisoners as residents of prisons, not their pre-incarceration addresses, leads to misleading information about racial demographics and population numbers.[16]

2020

The 2020 census drew a number of controversies and legal challenges under the Trump administration due to President Donald Trump's policies on illegal immigration, particularly those undocumented in the country. Prior to the publication of the census, the Commerce Department stated its intention to add a question asking responders about their immigration status, which many states and activists stated would cause illegal immigrants to not respond out of fear of prosecution and lead to undercounting, affecting state representation and federal funding.[17][18] The Supreme Court case Department of Commerce v. New York, decided in June 2019, found the rationale to add the question was arbitrary and capricious and required the department to provide a better reasoning before inclusion. The department dropped the question by the form's publication time.[19] Following the decision, Trump issued an executive order directing the department to obtain citizenship data from other federal agencies rather than via the census.[20] On July 21, 2020, Trump signed a presidential memorandum ordering the exclusion of illegal immigrants from the numbers in the 2020 census that are used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives.[21]

The COVID-19 pandemic made the collection of the census results difficult, and the department had extended the deadline to complete collection to October 31 instead of July 31, 2020. On August 3, the department announced its Replan Schedule that would end collection early on September 30, aware this would leave them with incomplete data that they would have to estimate total numbers to complete. This move was again challenged in the courts. While lower courts had ruled for an injunction against the department from implementing the Replan Schedule, the Supreme Court issued a stay of the injunction in October 2020, allowing the census to end early.[22]

Around the same time, Trump issued a memo to the Commerce Department on July 21, 2020, instructing them to use estimates of undocumented immigrants and subtract their numbers from the totals, claiming that he had the authority to make this determination on a Constitutional and past legal basis.[12] Several legal challenges were filed, and a combined suit from 22 states and several non-governmental organizations were found against Trump, ruling that only Congress has the authority to interpret the manner of which people the census includes. Trump petitioned to the Supreme Court which has certified the case Trump v. New York for an expedited hearing in November, given the results are to be delivered to Congress by December 31, 2020.[23] The Court issued a per curiam decision on December 18, 2020, which vacated the District Court's ruling and remanded the case to that court with orders to dismiss it.

History

Taking the Census by Francis William Edmonds (1854) is the earliest known depiction of the census-taking process.[24]

Censuses had been taken prior to the Constitution's ratification; in the early 17th century, a census was taken in Virginia, and people were counted in almost all of the British colonies that became the United States.[25] Between 1781 and 1786, the first "actual enumeration" was conducted separately in each state and compiled by John Kean for consideration at the Constitutional Convention in 1787.[26]

Throughout the years, the country's needs and interests became more complicated. This meant that statistics were needed to help people understand what was happening and have a basis for planning. The content of the decennial census changed accordingly. In 1810, the first inquiry on manufactures, quantity and value of products occurred; in 1840, inquiries on fisheries were added; and in 1850, the census included inquiries on social issues, such as taxation, churches, pauperism, and crime. The censuses also spread geographically, to new states and territories added to the Union, as well as to other areas under U.S. sovereignty or jurisdiction. There were so many more inquiries of all kinds in the census of 1880 that almost a full decade was needed to publish all the results. In response to this, the census was mechanized in 1890, with tabulating machines made by Herman Hollerith. This reduced the processing time to two and a half years.[27]

For the first six censuses (1790–1840), enumerators recorded only the names of the heads of household and a general demographic accounting of the remaining members of the household. Beginning in 1850, all members of the household were named on the census. The first slave schedules were also completed in 1850, with the second (and last) in 1860. Censuses of the late 19th century also included agricultural and industrial schedules to gauge the productivity of the nation's economy. Mortality schedules (taken between 1850 and 1880) captured a snapshot of life spans and causes of death throughout the country.

The first nine censuses (1790–1870) were conducted by U.S. Marshals before the Census Bureau was created.[28] Appointed U.S. Marshals of each judicial district hired assistant marshals to conduct the actual enumeration. The census enumerators were typically from the village or neighborhood and often knew the residents. Before enabling self-identification on the censuses, the U.S. Census Bureau relied on local people to have some knowledge of residents. Racial classification was made by the census enumerator in these decades, rather than by the individual.