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2011 Manitoba general election

The 2011 Manitoba general election was held to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. It took place on October 4, 2011, due to the new fixed-date election laws. In the outgoing legislature, the New Democratic Party of Manitoba (NDP) held 37 of the 57 seats, the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba (PC Party) held 19 of the 57 seats and the Liberal Party of Manitoba held one of the 57 seats, after Kevin Lamoureux resigned his seat in the riding of Inkster to run as a Liberal candidate in a federal by-election.[1]

Following the last census, electoral district boundaries were adjusted. There are 57 electoral districts.

Despite being perceived as a tight race in the run-up to voting, with The Globe and Mail expecting it to be the "closest in more than a decade",[2] the NDP won its fourth consecutive term in government, taking 37 seats, an improvement of one from the 2007 election – thus gaining their largest majority ever in the Assembly – whilst the Progressive Conservatives failed to make any gains beyond closing the gap in the popular vote, and not a single incumbent was defeated.[3] The PC leader Hugh McFadyen announced shortly thereafter that he would resign his post. Also facing a disappointing result in the election, Liberal leader Jon Gerrard also announced shortly after the election that he would resign his post once the party crowned a new leader in 2013.[4]

Party leadership

The Green Party and the NDP have chosen new leaders since the last general election.

On August 27, 2009 Premier Gary Doer, after being Premier of Manitoba for ten years announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the NDP. The following day he was appointed Canada's Ambassador to the United States.[5][6]

Three candidates entered the campaign to replace Doer: Steve Ashton, Greg Selinger and Andrew Swan. On September 28, 2009, Swan bowed out of the race and endorsed Selinger. Some pundits believe this was an attempt to stop Steve Ashton from becoming leader.[7]

Ashton, first seen as a minor candidate, ended up being a heavy-weight and, gaining momentum, scored big victories in some ridings, however it wasn't enough to convince many MLAs or win union endorsement. Selinger won the leadership election on October 17, 2009 with 65.75% of the ballot. His victory was achieved in large part by being backed by unions and the vast majority of the party elite.[6][8]

The Green Party elected James Beddome to a two-year term party leader on November 15, 2008, defeating incumbent Andrew Basham and third candidate Shane Nestruck. After his victory, he said that he would work toward running a full slate of candidates in the next provincial election. He was the party's candidate for a by-election in the northeast Winnipeg division of Elmwood in early 2009.

Election summary

Turnout

Of 777,054 registered voters, 55.77% or 433,346 cast votes in the election.[9] Although this is slightly lower than the 2007 election, voter turnout in Manitoba has generally declined since the mid-1970s when it reached 78.3% in the 1973 general election.[10] About 78,500 voters took advantage of advance polls, more than any previous election.[11]

Marginal seats

The following is a list of the ten ridings most narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2007 election (by percentage of the vote the indicated party lost by).

New boundaries are in effect for the 2011 election, so some ridings not listed may come into place in the next election with population movements.

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

Election campaign

Election signs for the major parties in the riding of The Maples.

Issues

Bipole III

Manitoba Hydro planned an alternative hydro-electric transmission line to Bipole I and II routes running through the Interlake region in Manitoba. Initially it planned a more easterly route to the east of Lake Winnipeg. The NDP ignored the expert opinion of Manitoba Hydro and decided to build the line on the west side of the province at a cost of $4.1 billion. Further, the NDP proposed the creation of a large UNESCO environmental heritage site named Pimachiowin Aki. Just days before his retirement as premier, Doer announced that the government would donate $10 million to the trust fund for UNESCO World Heritage site on the east side of Lake Winnipeg.[24] The NDP claimed that an east side Bipole III route would jeopardise the UNESCO site and claimed that a heritage site would benefit First Nations communities more.[25] The NDP proposed a longer, more expensive, alternative route through the west of Manitoba to preserve the environmental integrity of the east side. Subject to the Environmental Impact Statement to be completed in June 2011, the construction of the line will begin in the winter of 2012, one year after the election.[26]

Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen opposes the western route stating that it would cost $1 billion to $1.75 billion more, it would destroy more trees, 15 out of 16 First Nations believed the Bipole III would be more economically beneficial, and would be more at risk from disasters as the Bipole lines in the Interlake.[25] McFadyen promised that if elected he would cancel the western route, and build it down the east side.[27] McFadyen also supported the UNESCO site on the east side and claims that Bipole III would not jeopardise the World Heritage Site.[24][25]

Liberal leader Jon Gerrard proposed that instead of building the line down the east or west, Manitoba Hydro should put the cable under Lake Winnipeg as proposed by Dr. John Ryan, retired University of Winnipeg professor in 2008.[28] In the fall of 2010 Gerrard asked Manitoba Hydro CEO Bob Brennan if he had inquired into the Lake Winnipeg route. Brennan said that he had not. Gerrard promised to build the line through Lake Winnipeg if elected.[29]

Opinion polls

Leadership approval rating

Candidates by riding

Northern Manitoba

Westman/Parkland

Central Manitoba

Eastman

Northwest Winnipeg

Northeast Winnipeg

West Winnipeg

Central Winnipeg

South Winnipeg

By-elections since 2011

References

  1. ^ Lamoureux resigns as MLA, eyes federal run. Winnipeg Free Press, November 1, 2010. Retrieved April 1, 2011.
  2. ^ Lambert, Steve (October 4, 2011). "Manitoba election expected to be the closest in more than a decade". The Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on October 6, 2011. Retrieved October 5, 2011.
  3. ^ "NDP wins another Manitoba election". The Montreal Gazette. October 5, 2011. Retrieved October 5, 2011.[permanent dead link]
  4. ^ Manitoba Liberal Leader Jon Gerrard Won't Run Again Archived October 22, 2011, at the Wayback Machine. Huffington Post, October 19, 2011.
  5. ^ Kevin Engstrom (August 27, 2009). "Premier Gary Doer resigns". Winnipeg Sun. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  6. ^ a b "Selinger picked as Manitoba's next NDP premier". CBC News. October 17, 2009. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  7. ^ Larry Kusch, Bruce Owen (September 28, 2009). "Swan out, backs Selinger's NDP leadership bid". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  8. ^ Dan Lett (October 18, 2009). "Selinger must prove NDP has life after Doer". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved November 30, 2010.
  9. ^ "Elections Manitoba official results". Electionsmanitoba.ca. Archived from the original on April 25, 2012. Retrieved February 16, 2012.
  10. ^ "Voter Turnout in Manitoba: An Ecological Analysis" (PDF). Retrieved February 16, 2012.
  11. ^ "Winnipeg Free Press". Retrieved April 20, 2023 – via www.winnipegfreepress.com.
  12. ^ a b "MLA Marilyn Brick won't stand again". CBC News. February 12, 2011.
  13. ^ "MLA Korzeniowski won't seek re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. May 11, 2011.
  14. ^ "McGifford won't run again". Winnipeg Free Press. February 4, 2011.
  15. ^ Longtime member of Manitoba legislature [not] seeking re-election this fall. Winnipeg Free Press, April 1, 2011. Retrieved April 2, 2011.
  16. ^ "First female ag minister won't seek re-election". The Manitoba Co-operator. July 4, 2011.
  17. ^ "Bill Blaikie leaving political life". CBC News. July 11, 2011.
  18. ^ "The Premier had praise for the dedication of our retiring M.L.A." CFAR 590. February 22, 2011. Archived from the original on March 31, 2012. Retrieved August 25, 2011.
  19. ^ Bruce Owen (December 15, 2010). "Peter George Dyck leaving politics". Winnipeg Free Press.
  20. ^ Don Radford. "Peter George Dyck leaving politics". Winkler Times. Archived from the original on December 21, 2010. Retrieved March 26, 2011.
  21. ^ Rob Swyston (March 26, 2011). "MLA David Faurschou stepping down". Winnipeg Sun.
  22. ^ Larry Kusch (March 25, 2011). "MLA Hawranik announces resignation". Winnipeg Free Press.
  23. ^ Kusch, Larry (February 8, 2011). "Derkach won't seek eighth term in office". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved February 21, 2011.
  24. ^ a b "Doer announces $10-M UNESCO trust fund". Winnipeg Free Press. October 13, 2009. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  25. ^ a b c Ethan Cable (November 25, 2009). "West-side line is a $1.4 billion mistake, critics say". The Uniter. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  26. ^ "Bipole III". Manitoba Hydro. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  27. ^ Larry Kusch (November 8, 2010). "McFadyen vows to put end to hydro line down west side". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  28. ^ Dr. John Ryan (February 9–11, 2010). "Proposal for a Manitoba Hydro Cable under Lake Winnipeg". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  29. ^ Ross Romaniuk (August 3, 2010). "Go under lake: Grit". Winnipeg Sun. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
  30. ^ "Official Election Results". Archived from the original on April 7, 2013.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.03_Manitoba_Vote.pdf [permanent dead link]
  2. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 5, 2012. Retrieved January 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ^ "Manitoba Tories hold slight lead in new Environics opinion poll - Winnipeg Free Press". Archived from the original on September 28, 2011. Retrieved September 26, 2011.
  4. ^ "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader".
  5. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 23, 2012. Retrieved January 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  6. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 25, 2011. Retrieved January 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  7. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 15, 2011. Retrieved January 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). www.angus-reid.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 17, 2011. Retrieved January 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  9. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 15, 2011. Retrieved January 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  10. ^ http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/2010.09.21_Politics_MB.pdf [permanent dead link]
  11. ^ "680 CJOB - Winnipeg's News & Information Leader".
  12. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 15, 2011. Retrieved January 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  13. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). www.visioncritical.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 20, 2011. Retrieved January 25, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  14. ^ http://news.probe-research.com/2010/03/provincial-party-standings-march-2010.html [permanent dead link]
  15. ^ "Progressive Conservatives Lead Ruling New Democrats in Manitoba | Vision Critical". www.visioncritical.com. Archived from the original on March 25, 2010. Retrieved January 25, 2022.
  16. ^ http://news.probe-research.com/2010/03/provincial-party-standings-march-2010.html/ [permanent dead link]
  17. ^ a b c d e f g "Probe Research Inc. - Recent Polls". news.probe-research.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  18. ^ a b "Environics.net".

External links