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2018 United States Senate election in Missouri

The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill ran for re-election to a third term. McCaskill easily won her party's nomination, defeating several minor candidates in the primary, while Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley comfortably won the Republican primary.[2]

The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.[3] Pollsters predicted a tight race, however Hawley defeated McCaskill on election day by 5.8%, taking 51.4% of the vote to McCaskill's 45.6%, a somewhat larger margin than expected. This resulted in Republicans holding both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since McCaskill took office in 2007. Hawley was also the youngest incumbent senator at that time and continued to be until the inauguration of Jon Ossoff in 2021.[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Claire McCaskill
U.S. President
U.S. Senators
State officials

Results

Results by county:
  McCaskill
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Hawley
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Executive Branch official
United States Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Cabinet-level officials
Organizations
Austin Petersen
Individuals
  • Dana Loesch, conservative talk radio host and NRA spokesperson[49]
  • Ryan Wrecker, radio host on KMOV, CBS St. Louis[50]
Organizations
  • 71 Republic[51]
Courtland Sykes
State judges
  • Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court[52]

Debates

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Results

Results by county:
  Hawley
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Monetti
  •   40–50%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Results by county:
Campbell
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes

Green primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Results

Results by county:
  Crain
  •   100%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  Crain/Bauer tie
  •   50%
  Bauer
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Debates

Fundraising

Polling

Hypothetical polling
with Austin Petersen
with generic Republican
with Vicky Hartzler
with Blaine Luetkemeyer
with Todd Richardson
with Eric Schmitt
with Jason Smith

Results

State Senate districts results
State House districts results

Sen. McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on Election Day. Despite performing strongly in the St. Louis suburbs, she ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in the Lead Belt and the Missouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state.[68] Despite McCaskill's loss, Missouri Democrats held the other statewide office that went up for election in this cycle, the office of Missouri State Auditor. Democratic incumbent state auditor Nicole Galloway, who had been appointed to the post in 2015 by then-Gov. Jay Nixon following a vacancy, won a full term in the 2018 State Auditor election.[69]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Voter demographics

References

  1. ^ 2018 Voter Turnout Report (PDF), Missouri Secretary of State, December 7, 2018
  2. ^ Wise, Lindsay (October 17, 2017). "GOP's top Senate recruit in Missouri won't commit to voting for McConnell as leader". McClatchy. Retrieved July 29, 2018.
  3. ^ "United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  4. ^ "Missouri Election Results". The New York Times. November 11, 2018. Retrieved November 11, 2018.
  5. ^ Wise, Lindsay (September 1, 2016). "McCaskill to seek third term in U.S. Senate". McClatchy Washington Bureau. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
  6. ^ Mannies, Jo (November 18, 2016). "Undaunted by Democratic setbacks, McCaskill running for re-election in 2018". St. Louis Public Radio. Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  7. ^ McDermott, Kevin (August 9, 2017). "McCaskill faces primary challenge from the left by political novice". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved August 12, 2017.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Candidate Filing List, 2018 Primary Election". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  9. ^ "Obama coming to California to raise money for an endangered Democratic senator". Los Angeles Times. March 30, 2018. Retrieved March 31, 2018.
  10. ^ "MO & WI-Sen: Sen Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. September 30, 2017.
  11. ^ "MO-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Slams Josh Hawley (R) Over Remarks Linking Feminism To Sex Trafficking". Daily Kos. February 6, 2018.
  12. ^ "MO-Sen: Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Claire McCaskill (D) Fight Back To Defeat Trumpcare". Daily Kos. June 13, 2017.
  13. ^ "MA & MO-Sen: Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Warren (D) & McCaskill (D) Fight Back Against Trump". Daily Kos. May 31, 2017.
  14. ^ Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to McCaskill.
  15. ^ "MA, WI, MO & NV-Sen: Elizabeth Warren (D) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. September 16, 2017.
  16. ^ "Trump, in visit to Missouri, endorses Josh Hawley while promoting GOP tax plan". KansasCity.com. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
  17. ^ a b c d "2018 Missouri primary election results". Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  18. ^ "Hawley Announces Bid Against McCaskill". Roll Call. October 10, 2017. Retrieved October 10, 2017.
  19. ^ "Austin Petersen Announces He's Running for US Senate as Republican". Liberty Hangout. July 3, 2017. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
  20. ^ "Exclusive: Libertarian Activist Austin Petersen Is Running for U.S. Senate...as a Republican! [Reason Podcast]". Reason Magazine. July 4, 2017. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
  21. ^ Ventimiglia, Jack (April 6, 2017). "Monetti seeks Senate seat". The Daily Star-Journal. Retrieved April 10, 2017.
  22. ^ Suntrup, Jack (October 8, 2017). "Courtland Sykes, mystery U.S. Senate candidate from Missouri, offers 'Trump-inspired populism on steroids'".
  23. ^ "Trump supporters, protesters turn out for presidential visit in Springfield". The Columbia Missourian. August 30, 2017. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
  24. ^ Drucker, David M. (July 3, 2017). "Top GOP Senate recruit Ann Wagner won't challenge Claire McCaskill". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved July 3, 2017.
  25. ^ "Jeff Notes: Greitens reschedules tax tour; Mizzou professor not running for Senate". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved January 16, 2018.
  26. ^ Erickson, Kurt (July 7, 2017). "GOP state lawmaker planning bid for McCaskill seat". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved July 9, 2017.
  27. ^ "State Rep. Curtman backs off possible U.S. Senate bid". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. October 14, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  28. ^ Faughn, Scott (July 5, 2017). "Wagner's decision remakes Republicans' 2018 plans". The Missouri Times. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  29. ^ Yokley, Eli (July 6, 2017). "To Avoid Senate Primary Fight, Missouri Republicans Want Hawley to Decide". Morning Consult. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  30. ^ a b McDermott, Kevin (July 15, 2017). "A year from the first votes, multiple Republicans weighing a McCaskill challenge". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  31. ^ Shesgreen, Deirdre (July 17, 2017). "Hartzler opts against Senate bid to challenge McCaskill". USAToday. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  32. ^ McDermott, Kevin; Raasch, Chuck (July 17, 2017). "Missouri House Speaker Richardson preparing to run for state auditor next year, says spokesman". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved August 15, 2017.
  33. ^ McDermott, Kevin (August 15, 2017). "Schmitt out of Missouri's U.S. Senate race, backs Hawley for GOP nomination". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved August 15, 2017.
  34. ^ Erickson, Kurt (February 27, 2017). "Missouri GOP basks in success, looks forward to 2018". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved February 27, 2017.
  35. ^ Robbins, Brian (September 7, 2017). "Wasinger to announce bid for State Auditor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved September 7, 2017.
  36. ^ Lowry, Bryan (July 24, 2017). "Missouri state rep eyes run against McCaskill after encouragement from Wagner". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved July 25, 2017.
  37. ^ "George W. Bush to fundraise for GOP candidates". Politico. September 11, 2018.
  38. ^ Byrnes, Jesse (September 11, 2018). "George W. Bush to hit fundraising circuit for GOP candidates".
  39. ^ "Trump, in visit to Missouri, endorses Josh Hawley while promoting GOP tax plan". The Kansas City Star. November 29, 2017.
  40. ^ a b "Missouri GOP Aims to Avoid Akin Repeat, Unseat McCaskill". Real Clear Politics. July 21, 2017.
  41. ^ a b c "Former Missouri senators ask Hawley to enter US Senate race". Associated Press. July 20, 2017.
  42. ^ "The Top 10 Senate Races of 2018". Politico. December 24, 2017.
  43. ^ "Congressman Jason Smith: Southeast Missouri is "Trump Country"". Ozarks First. September 11, 2018.
  44. ^ "Top Missouri GOP officials to help Hawley fundraise". HeraldStandard.com. June 26, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  45. ^ McDermott, Kevin (August 15, 2017). "Schmitt out of Missouri's U.S. Senate race, backs Hawley for GOP nomination". StLToday.com. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
  46. ^ "Ex-Trump strategist Steve Bannon backs Hawley, bringing insurgent stamp and controversy". News-Leader.com. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
  47. ^ "McCaskill tears into GOP challenger Hawley during Jackson County visit". KansasCity.com. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
  48. ^ Gregory J. Holman (May 30, 2018). "Hawley gets Missouri Right to Life endorsement in U.S. Senate race against McCaskill". Springfield News-Leader.
  49. ^ Stritzel, Chris (September 4, 2017). "Election 2018: Endorsing Austin Petersen for Senate". Building St. Louis. Archived from the original on April 11, 2018. Retrieved April 11, 2018.
  50. ^ "Audio « CBS St. Louis". Archived from the original on July 5, 2018. Retrieved July 4, 2018.
  51. ^ "Miracle In Missouri: Austin Petersen Could Win This Thing · 71 Republic". June 2, 2018. Archived from the original on June 5, 2018. Retrieved June 2, 2018.
  52. ^ Wise, Lindsay (February 26, 2018). "Roy Moore backs McCaskill challenger who called feminists 'she devils'". The Kansas City Star.
  53. ^ "Heather Coil". www.facebook.com.
  54. ^ "CAMPBELL, JAPHETH RAY - Candidate overview FEC". www.FEC.gov. Retrieved August 4, 2017.
  55. ^ a b "2018 Candidates - Libertarian Party".
  56. ^ "Alicia Dearn Announces Exploratory Committee for U.S. Senate in Missouri". TheJackNews.com. July 6, 2017. Archived from the original on September 21, 2017. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
  57. ^ Petersen, Austin. "Why I'm running as a Republican for U.S. Senate". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
  58. ^ "Independent candidate could complicate Senate race for McCaskill, Hawley". kansascity. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
  59. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  60. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  61. ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  62. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved October 11, 2018.
  63. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved October 11, 2018.
  64. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 18, 2018.
  65. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  66. ^ Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018). "Missouri - 2018 Senate Forecast".
  67. ^ "Compare candidate financial totals". Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  68. ^ Suntrup, Jack (November 7, 2018). "Hawley netted enough rural votes to sink McCaskill, despite her strength in Missouri's cities". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved November 13, 2018.
  69. ^ Fenske, Sarah. "Nicole Galloway Wins Missouri Auditor Race, a Lone Democrat in a Red State". Riverfront Times. Riverfront Times. Archived from the original on November 26, 2018. Retrieved November 27, 2018.
  70. ^ "All Results State of Missouri - State of Missouri - General Election, November 06, 2018". sos.mo.gov.
  71. ^ "Missouri Senatorial exit poll". CNN. Retrieved April 14, 2023.

External links

Official campaign websites