In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, when George H. W. Bush had scored a decisive nationwide win against Michael Dukakis.[5] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on the auto bailout in manufacturing towns outside Detroit. Appearing with United Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalize American companies for moving manufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States.[6] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likely blue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.
Biden ultimately carried Michigan by 2.78%, a far closer margin than expected. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came from union households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% of Black American voters.[7] Many voters were also concerned with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump outperformed his polling average in the state, but it was not enough to win. Michigan marked Biden's strongest performance in a state won by Trump in 2016, even voting to the left of Nevada which Trump lost in 2016.
With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for losing Democrat John Kerry.
Michigan's overall vote in for this election was 1.7% more Republican than the nation-at-large.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.
Republican primary
Incumbent United States PresidentDonald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[8]
Despite losing the state, Trump won 8 out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan, including one that elected a Democrat.
Analysis
Michigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasted a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of the blue wall since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's unexpected collapse in the northern industrial states.[195][196]
Biden would carry the state by just under 2.8%; while Biden ran well behind Barack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was nearly in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse than John Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, and Al Gore's 5.1% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state.[197]
While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a somewhat comfortable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example, Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%.[197] Trump held Macomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016.[198]
Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance in Wayne County, home of Detroit.[198] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance in Genesee County,[199] and flipped back Saginaw County.[200]
Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with Evangelical Michiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate.[201] Much of the state's sizable Muslim and Arab American voters backed Biden in the election, in which their support was seen as being important for helping Biden secure victory in Michigan.[202][203]
Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden.[204]African Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Joe Biden winning that state.[205] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95–3 to Biden 94–5, a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland and Washtenaw counties.[206]
The 2020 election in Oakland County by municipality (certain villages like Holly not shown).The 2020 election in Wayne County by municipality.
The number of unbalanced votes in Wayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016.[208] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, with Norm Shinkle abstaining.[209]
Edison exit polls
Aftermath
On November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[212] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why, when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[213]
On election night in Antrim County, human error miscounted an unofficial tally of Presidential votes. Next day, the County Clerk pulled the unofficial tally offline. The error was caused by using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, which mismatched results.[214] The Republican Clerk admitted that she made a mistake in some precincts, which mismatched precinct results.[215] The very next day, she corrected her mistake, tabulated all ballots again and ran a final report to certify Trump's overwhelming win.[214] Nonetheless, this error and a related lawsuit fueled multiple election conspiracy theories.[216]
Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to the Michigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history and was not authorized under Michigan law, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of the Michigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining.[217]
Official audits
In October 2020, the Michigan Election Security Advisory Commission published recommendations for two types of postelection audits: procedural and tabulation audits.[218] The first statewide risk-limiting audit included a hand tally of the sampled ballots, which confirmed that Biden received more votes than Trump and the share of votes each candidate received was within a fraction of a percentage point of the certified results.[219] Another tabulation audit confirmed the election results by examining ballots cast, voting machines and the election procedures. The series of post-election audits was the most comprehensive in the state's history.[220]
In Antrim County, the Clerk's Office was joined by a bipartisan team of clerks to perform a hand recount of every single ballot. Their recount proved that the county's election results had been accurately certified.[215] The Republican Chairman concluded in a letter prefacing his state Senate Oversight Committee's election report: "all compelling theories that sprang forth from the rumors surrounding Antrim County are diminished so significantly as for it to be a complete waste of time to consider them further."[221]
After eight months investigating the state's 2020 general election process, he and his Republican Committee members all voted for the Senate to adopt their report. Their report concluded, "The Committee found no evidence of widespread or systemic fraud in Michigan's prosecution of the 2020 election."[221]
Election law changes since then
Due to voters approving no-reason-required absentee voting in 2018 and the COVID pandemic, there was a record number of absentee voters. Michigan law at that time did not allow for the tabulating of absentee ballots until after the polling place ballots were counted. That led to days before Biden was declared the winner.[222] In 2022, voters approved a ballot proposal making it easier to vote. In the aftermath, Michigan lawmakers made changes in election laws which, among other things, allowed cities and townships to begin tabulating absentee ballots before Election Day.[223]
^ a bCandidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
^ a b cCandidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
^ a bCandidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
^Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n oKey: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^ a b c d"Someone else" with 2%
^ a b c d e f gStandard VI response
^ a b c"Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
^ a b c dIf only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
^ a b c d"Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
^Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
^"Some other candidate" with 2%
^ a b c d eWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
^ a b c"Someone else" with 3%
^"Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 8%
^"None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
^"Someone else" with no voters
^ a bResults generated with high Democratic turnout model
^ a bResults generated with high Republican turnout model
^"Third party" with 5%
^ a b c d e f g h i j k lIncludes "Refused"
^ a b c"Someone else" with 1%
^"Other/third party" with 2%
^"Someone else" with 0%
^"Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
^"Third party" with 2%
^"Other" and "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
^Includes Undecided
^"Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
^ a b c d e fAdditional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
^ a b c"Third party candidate" with 5%
^"Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
^"Third party candidate" with 4%
^"Someone else" with 4%
^"Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
^"Other third party" with 2%
^"Another candidate" with 0%
^ a b"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
^ a b"Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
^"Refused" with 3%; "Third Party" with 2%
^ a b"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
^"Someone else" with 1.2%
^"Another candidate" with 1%
^If only Trump and Biden were candidates
^"Someone else" with 7%; "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
^Would not vote with 1%
^Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^"Other/not sure" with 7%
^"Some other candidate" with 3%
^"Refused" with 3%; "Third party" with 1%
^Would not vote with 0%
^"Another party candidate" with 1%
^"Another third party/write-in" 1%
^"Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
^"Third party" with 6%
^"Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
^"Another Third Party/Write-In" with 2%
^"Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
^"Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
^"Would vote third party" with 5%
^"Refused" with 2%
^"Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 5%
^"other" with 2%
^"Refused/no answer" with 4%
^"Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
^"Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
^"A different candidate" with 6%
^"Third party" with 4%
^"Third party/write-in" with 3%
^"Someone else" with 6%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
^"Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
^ a b"Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
^ a bA third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
^Would not vote with 5%
^ a b"Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
^ a bWould not vote with 7%
^"Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
^A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
^ a bWould not vote with 6%
^"Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
^A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
^Would not vote with 4%
^"Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
^A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
^ a bFigures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
^"It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
^ a b c dListed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
^ a bListed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
^19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
^"Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
^"Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
^"Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
^"Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
^"Depends on who the Democratic nominee is" with 15%
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^Zogby Analytics
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^Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University
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Further reading
David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 9, 2020), "The six political states of Michigan", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 9, 2020, retrieved September 7, 2020. (describes 2016 political geography of Detroit; Detroit suburbs; the Middle; the Thumb; the West; Upper Peninsula and North)
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