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2020 United States presidential election in Oregon

The 2020 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Biden won 56.45% of the vote to 40.37% for Trump. Biden received Oregon's seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3] The state certified its election results on December 3.[4]

Biden won Oregon by 16.08%, an increase from Hillary Clinton's 11% victory margin in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has won Oregon since Ronald Reagan of neighboring California in 1984. Biden flipped two counties Trump won in 2016: Marion County, home to the state capital of Salem; and Deschutes County, anchored by fast-growing Bend. This marked the first time since 1964 that a Democrat won an outright majority in Deschutes County, although Democratic presidential nominees in 1976 and 1992 had carried the county with pluralities.[5]

Biden was the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without carrying Columbia County and Tillamook County. Tillamook and Columbia counties were among a fraction of the more than 3,000 counties in the U.S. to vote twice for Barack Obama (in 2008 and 2012) and twice for Trump (in 2016 and 2020).[6] Biden also made history as the highest vote earner in Oregon history, with 1,340,383 votes, and Biden was able to achieve stronger swings leftward in 28 of Oregon's 36 counties than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, 33% of voters were secular and supported Biden by 80%.[7]

Primary elections

The Oregon primary elections were held on Tuesday, May 19, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in Oregon, receiving the state's 28 delegates to the Republican National Convention[8]

Democratic primary

Though all Democrats but Joe Biden had withdrawn from the national race by the Oregon primary, four remained on the ballot. Biden won just under two-thirds of the vote. Bernie Sanders received just over 20% of the vote. Oregon's 71 delegates were allocated with 46 to Biden and 15 to Sanders.[8]

Independent Party of Oregon primary

The Independent Party of Oregon cross-nominated Joe Biden after an online nonpartisan blanket primary.[13]

Pacific Green Party primary

Howie Hawkins won the Oregon Green Party primary.

General election

Final predictions

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Aggregate polls

Polls

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 4 out of 5 congressional districts in Oregon.

Analysis

Edison exit polls

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 6%

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 24, 2020.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Oregon secretary of state certifies election results". kgw.com. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  5. ^ Warner, Gary (November 20, 2020). "Deschutes joins Oregon's blue hue in presidential voting, and other voting stats". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 3, 2021.
  6. ^ Warner, Gary A. (January 5, 2022). "A turbulent first week of 2022 election year". Oregon Capital Insider. Retrieved August 4, 2022.
  7. ^ "Oregon Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  8. ^ a b "Biden, Trump win presidential primaries in Oregon". KPTV. Associated Press. May 19, 2020.
  9. ^ "Oregon Secretary of State". results.oregonvotes.gov. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  10. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  11. ^ "May 19, 2020, Primary Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  12. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  13. ^ "RESULTS AND DATA | 2020 OREGON PRIMARY | Independent Party". Pers. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  18. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  19. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  20. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  21. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  24. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  25. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  26. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  28. ^ 270 to Win
  29. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  30. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  31. ^ Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  32. ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
  33. ^ DHM Research
  34. ^ "November 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  35. ^ "Oregon 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
  36. ^ "Oregon Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

External links