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2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris (from neighboring California), who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3]

The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[4] This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean. Formerly a moderately red state in the American Southwest, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a major drop in margin of Republican victory in the traditional GOP stronghold compared to previous cycles, despite an overall more favorable year for Republicans than the previous two presidential elections. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. The state is now considered a purple state.

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[5] Kennedy’s petition has been withdrawn, and he will not be on the ballot in Arizona.[6]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.


Republican primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".[9][10]

General election

Candidates

The following candidates have qualified and will be on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona.[11]

Predictions

Election rule changes

Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered.[21] In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.[22]

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls


Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Results

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
  4. ^ a b c d e f g With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ "Other" with 3%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  8. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  9. ^ "Other" with 2%
  10. ^ Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 15%
  12. ^ "Another candidate" with 12%
  13. ^ "Another candidate" with 11%
  14. ^ No Labels candidate
  15. ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  16. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  17. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  18. ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%
  19. ^ Joe Manchin with 4%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 12%
  21. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  22. ^ Jill Stein (G) with 2%
  23. ^ "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
  24. ^ "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
  2. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
  6. ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  7. ^ a b Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  8. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  9. ^ Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  10. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
  11. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  12. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  13. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  14. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  15. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  16. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  17. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  18. ^ Poll sponsored by Independent Center
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  20. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
  21. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Daily Mail
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by Stand for Children Arizona
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
  24. ^ Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
  25. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  26. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates

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