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Next Senedd election

The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026[1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020, and the first following reforms to the voting system which increased the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96 and shortened its term from five years to four.[2][3]

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:

Electoral system

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.

Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[6][7]

Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.[8] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.[9]

Another reform bill, which is yet to be adopted as of May 2024, would provide for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used until 2022 by the Labour Party).[citation needed]

Opinion polling

LOESS curve of polling conducted

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.

See also

References

  1. ^ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  2. ^ MSs approve Senedd reform bill - nation.cymru
  3. ^ Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead - BBC
  4. ^ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
  5. ^ "Former Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething to stand down at next election". The Guardian. 7 September 2024. Retrieved 7 September 2024.
  6. ^ "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  7. ^ "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
  8. ^ "Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024". legislation.gov.uk.
  9. ^ "See exactly when the next election in Wales will be". South Wales Argus. 20 September 2023. Retrieved 19 August 2024.
  10. ^ a b "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  11. ^ a b Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.

External links