2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. However, the general election was won by U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator in 32 years.^[1]

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.^[2]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.^[3] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.^[4]

Candidates

Nominee

• Blanche Lincoln, incumbent U.S. Senator^[5]

Eliminated in runoff

• Bill Halter, incumbent Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas^[6]

Eliminated in primary

• D.C. Morrison, businessman

Withdrew Before Primary

• Drew Pritt, activist and 2006 candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas^[7]

Polling

Results

Results by county:

Lincoln

•   Lincoln—60-70%
•   Lincoln—50-60%
•   Lincoln—40-50%

Halter

•   Halter—40-50%
•   Halter—50-60%
•   Halter—60-70%

Runoff

Polling

Results

Runoff results by county:

Lincoln

•   Lincoln—70-80%
•   Lincoln—60-70%
•   Lincoln—50-60%

Halter

•   Halter—50-60%
•   Halter—60-70%
•   Halter—70-80%

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

Nominee

• John Boozman, optometrist and U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district^[18]

Eliminated in primary

• Randy Alexander, University of Arkansas Housing Director and vice chair of the Washington County Tea Party
• Gilbert Baker, state senator^[19]
• Curtis Coleman, businessman^[20]
• Kim Hendren, minority leader of the Arkansas Senate^[21]
• Jim Holt, former state senator, nominee for this U.S. Senate seat in 2004, and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas in 2006^[22]
• Fred Ramey, real estate investment company owner^[23]
• Conrad Reynolds, retired U.S. Army colonel^[24]

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:^[25]

1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
4. Tom Cox – 4%
5. Kim Hendren – 2%
6. Fred Ramey – 2%
7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling

Results

Results by county:

Boozman

•   Boozman—80-90%
•   Boozman—70-80%
•   Boozman—60-70%
•   Boozman—50-60%
•   Boozman—40-50%
•   Boozman—30-40%

Holt

•   Holt—30-40%
•   Holt—40-50%

Boozman/Holt tie

•   Boozman/Holt tie—20-30%

Baker

•   Baker—30-40%
•   Baker—50-60%

General election

Candidates

• John Boozman, U.S. representative
• Blanche Lincoln, incumbent senator
• Trevor Drown (L), military veteran^[29][30]
• John Gray (G), Mayor of Greenland^[31]

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.^[32] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security.^[33] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.^[34]

Debates

Predictions

Fundraising

Polling

Hypothetical polling

with Bill Halter

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Bradley (Largest city: Warren)
• Calhoun (Largest city: Hampton)
• Cleveland (Largest city: Rison)
• Columbia (Largest city: Magnolia)
• Conway (Largest city: Morrilton)
• Faulkner (Largest city: Conway)
• Franklin (Largest city: Ozark)
• Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
• Garland (Largest city: Hot Springs)
• Grant (Largest city: Sheridan)
• Howard (Largest city: Nashville)
• Independence (Largest city: Batesville)
• Johnson (Largest city: Clarksville)
• Logan (Largest city: Booneville)
• Miller (Largest city: Texarkana)
• Perry (Largest city: Perryville)
• Prairie (Largest city: Des Arc)
• Sevier (Largest city: De Queen)
• Sharp (Largest city: Cherokee Village)
• Union (Largest city: El Dorado)
• Van Buren (Largest city: Clinton)
• Washington (Largest city: Fayetteville)
• Yell (Largest city: Dardanelle)
• Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
• Craighead (Largest city: Jonesboro)
• Cross (Largest city: Wynne)
• Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
• Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
• Greene (Largest city: Paragould)
• Hot Spring (Largest city: Malvern)
• Izard (Largest city: Horseshoe Bend)
• Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
• Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
• Ouachita (Largest city: Camden)
• Bradley (largest city: Warren)
• Clay (largest city: Piggott)
• Hempstead (largest city: Hope)
• Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
• Poinsett (largest city: Harrisburg)

See also

• 2010 Arkansas elections
• 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
• 2010 Arkansas gubernatorial election

References

1. Enten, Harry (December 5, 2014). "Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 13, 2020.
2. "Election Dates and Deadlines". Secretary of State of Arkansas. Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
3. Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
4. DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Archived October 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine Business Week, April 1, 2010.
5. "Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln". KATV. March 15, 2009. Archived from the original on July 6, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
6. "CNN Political Ticker - All politics, all the time - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Archived from the original on July 15, 2012. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
7. "Many U.S. Senate candidates already running".
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13. "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. June 18, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
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16. "Arkansas Democratic Runoff Results". Politico. June 8, 2010. Retrieved June 8, 2010.
17. "2010 General Primary (Runoff) Election". Arkansas Secretary of State.
18. Kraushaar, Josh (January 29, 2010). "Boozman running against Lincoln". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
19. Stewart, Martina (September 1, 2009). "Former Arkansas GOP chair announces Senate bid". CNN. Archived from the original on December 7, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
20. Barr, Andy (June 15, 2009). "Tea party leader to run for Senate". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
21. "Kim Hendren Announces Run for U.S. Senate". KFSM-TV. April 20, 2009. Archived from the original on December 12, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
22. Lyon, John (January 14, 2010). "Holt announces U.S. Senate campaign". Arkansas News. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
23. "Ramey Joins GOP Field for U.S. Senate". KATV. June 23, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010. ^{[dead link]}
24. "'Joe the Plumber' appears with Reynolds". WXVT. January 25, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.^{[permanent dead link]}
25. Moritz, Rob (December 8, 2009). "Baker Upbeat After 'Straw Poll' Win". Southwest Times Record. Archived from the original on December 15, 2017. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
26. Research 2000
27. Talk Business
28. "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
29. "The Courier, Russellville, Ark". Couriernews.com. July 27, 2009. Archived from the original on July 8, 2011. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
30. "Trevor Drown (I) for Senate - Arkansas". Trevordrown.ning.com. January 31, 2010. Archived from the original on April 18, 2010. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
31. "John Gray for U.S. Senate". John Gray for U.S. Senate. Archived from the original on May 7, 2010. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
32. "RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Arkansas Senate - Boozman vs. Lincoln". Archived from the original on January 16, 2019.
33. Demillo, Andrew (August 11, 2010). "Lincoln criticizes Boozman on Social Security". BusinessWeek. Archived from the original on August 21, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
34. Zwick, Jesse (August 31, 2010). "The Earmark Wars Continue in Arkansas". The Washington Independent. Archived from the original on August 26, 2014. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
35. c-span
36. c-span
37. "Senate". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
38. "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
39. "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
40. "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
41. "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
42. "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arkansas". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010.^{[permanent dead link]}
43. Rasmussen Reports
44. CNN/Time/Opinion Research
45. Mason-Dixon
46. Talk Business Archived July 24, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
47. Rasmussen Reports
48. Reuters/Ipsos
49. Mason-Dixon
50. Rasmussen Reports
51. Rasmussen Reports
52. Reuters/Ipsos
53. Talk Business
54. Magellan Strategies
55. Rasmussen Reports
56. Research 2000
57. Rasmussen Reports ^{[permanent dead link]}
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64. Rasmussen Reports
65. Public Policy Polling
66. "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. November 29, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.

External links

• Arkansas Secretary of State - Elections
• U.S. Congress candidates for Arkansas Archived September 30, 2010, at the Wayback Machine at Project Vote Smart
• Arkansas U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
• 2010 Arkansas Senate General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Arkansas Senate from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Arkansas Senate Race from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Arkansas Senate Race from CQ Politics
• Race profile from The New York Times

Debates

• Arkansas Senate Democratic Primary Debate, C-SPAN, April 23, 2010
• Arkansas Senate debate excerpts, OnTheIssues.org

Official campaign sites

• Randy Alexander for U.S. Senate
• Gilbert Baker for U.S. Senate
• John Boozman for U.S. Senate
• Curtis Coleman for U.S. Senate
• Tom Cox for U.S. Senate
• Trevor Drown for U.S. Senate
• Bill Halter for U.S. Senate
• Kim Hendren for U.S. Senate^{[permanent dead link]}
• Jim Holt for U.S. Senate Archived March 10, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
• Blanche Lincoln for U.S. Senate incumbent
• Fred Ramey for U.S. Senate
• Colonel Conrad Reynolds for U.S. Senate
• Buddy Roger for U.S. Senate