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Опрос общественного мнения перед всеобщими выборами в Соединенном Королевстве в 2024 году

Опрос общественного мнения для всеобщих выборов в Соединенном Королевстве 2024 года проводился различными организациями для оценки намерений избирателей. Большинство перечисленных компаний по опросам являются членами Британского совета по опросам (BPC) и соблюдают его правила раскрытия информации. Перечисленные опросы общественного мнения охватывают период с предыдущих выборов 12 декабря 2019 года по выборы в четверг, 4 июля 2024 года. [1]

Графические резюме

    • Руководство по таблицам

    Результаты опросов перечислены в таблицах ниже в обратном хронологическом порядке. Самый высокий процентный показатель в каждом опросе отображается жирным шрифтом, а его фон затенен цветом лидирующей партии. Столбец «лидер» показывает разницу в процентных пунктах между двумя партиями с самыми высокими показателями. Если результат опроса равен нулю, показатели с самыми высокими процентами затеняются и отображаются жирным шрифтом.

    «Зеленый» в этих таблицах относится к объединенным суммам для зеленых партий в Соединенном Королевстве , а именно Партии зеленых Англии и Уэльса , Шотландских зеленых , и, по опросам всего Соединенного Королевства, Партии зеленых Северной Ирландии . Три партии разделяют приверженность экологической политике, но независимы друг от друга, и каждая из них участвует в выборах только в своем регионе.

    Компания по проведению опросов общественного мнения ComRes была приобретена Savanta в июле 2019 года. [2] В ноябре 2019 года она была переименована в Savanta ComRes [3], а в декабре 2022 года — в Savanta. [4] В августе 2023 года компания по исследованию рынка Omnisis переименовала свое подразделение по проведению опросов общественного мнения в We Think. [5] В октябре 2023 года группа Norstat приобрела Panelbase. [6] В ноябре 2023 года Kantar Public переименовала себя в Verian . [7] Ни одно из этих организационных изменений не повлекло за собой изменений в методологии.

    Результаты общенационального опроса

    Большинство национальных опросов общественного мнения не охватывают Северную Ирландию , где основные политические партии отличаются от остальной части Соединенного Королевства. Это различие сделано в таблицах ниже в столбце «регион», где «GB» означает Великобританию (Англию, Шотландию и Уэльс), а «UK» означает все Соединенное Королевство . Plaid Cymru выдвигает кандидатов только в Уэльсе , а Scottish National Party (SNP) выдвигает кандидатов только в Шотландии .

    2024

    По сравнению с результатом, последняя неделя опросов в среднем недооценила доли голосов консерваторов и либерал-демократов и переоценила доли голосов лейбористов и реформаторов. Прогнозируемые доли голосов Шотландской национальной партии и зеленых были в основном точны. [8]

    2023

    2022

    2021

    2020

    Non-geographical samples

    The following polls sampled subsets of voters according to particular characteristics from across the UK or Great Britain.

    Ethnic minority voters

    Muslim voters

    Jewish voters

    Private renter voters

    Young voters

    Savanta published polls of voters aged between 18 and 25. The 2019 result comes from the British Election Study's estimate of voters aged 18 to 24 and the 2024 result comes from Ipsos' estimate of voters among the same age group.

    16–17 year olds

    JL Partners polled a sample of 16 and 17 year olds. The voting age in UK elections is 18, therefore none of the individuals polled had the legal right to vote. However, there was an active debate during the campaign on lowering the minimum voting age, and Labour included the policy in their manifesto.[67][68][69][70][71]

    GB News viewers

    Seat projections

    The general election was contested under the first-past the post electoral system in 650 constituencies. 326 seats were needed for a parliamentary majority.

    Most polls were reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters did not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the House of Commons.

    Projections from aggregators

    Various models existed which continually projected election outcomes for the seats in Britain based on the aggregate of polling data. Final predictions of some notable models are tabulated below.

    MRP and SRP polls

    Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) was used by YouGov to predict outcomes for the 2017 and 2019 elections.[72][73] Multiple polling companies conducted such polling and modelling for the 2024 election, these are tabulated below. Also included is a stacked regression with poststratification (SRP) poll produced by J.L. Partners, the first time such a method has been used for a UK election.[74] All of these polls use sample sizes substantially larger than typical national polls.

    These polls were of Britain only, though the reporting of some results include the 18 Northern Irish seats under "Others". Polling companies also differ in their handling of the Speaker's seat, considering it variously as Labour, "Other", or omitting it from the results. Negative values in the rightmost "majority" column below indicate that the party with the most seats would have a plurality of seats, but would not have a majority. The overall vote share values for these polls, where reported, are also included in the tables above.

    Exit poll

    An exit poll conducted by Ipsos for the BBC, ITV, and Sky News was published at the end of voting at 22:00, predicting the number of seats for each party.[77]

    The extent of Labour's victory was projected to be slightly less than seen in the last week of opinion polls, though still a substantial landslide. The exit poll ended up being close to the actual results, apart from the Reform figure which was slightly overestimated.

    BBC updated forecasts

    Throughout the night and into the early hours of 5 July, BBC News updated their forecast, combining the exit poll with the results coming in.[78][79][80]

    Sub-national poll results

    See also

    Notes

    1. ^ Stacked regression with poststratification.
    2. ^ Methodology change.[9]
    3. ^ a b The headline voting intention figures are calculated by YouGov from its MRP seat projections.
    4. ^ a b c Values calculated from the weighted responses for each party, after excluding Don't Know and Would Not Vote.
    5. ^ The published lead was 15 points. This is not apparent from the party numbers due to rounding.
    6. ^ a b c d Includes Plaid Cymru.
    7. ^ Survation also polled voting intention if Liz Truss were Prime Minister, which saw Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 29%, Liberal Democrats on 11% and others on 12%.
    8. ^ Opinium announced they had amended their methodology, so it cannot be compared directly to previous Opinium polls.
    9. ^ a b c d e Includes Speaker Lindsay Hoyle's Chorley seat which none of the main parties are contesting.
    10. ^ a b c d e f g Polling was of GB adults only, but 18 seats were assigned to Northern Irish parties in the reporting of the outcome.
    11. ^ Jeremy Corbyn, the independent candidate for Islington North
    12. ^ First MRP to take into account new constituency boundaries
    13. ^ a b "The baseline MRP by Focaldata predicted Labour winning 469 seats and the Conservatives 128 seats. 'Don't Know' was predicted to win two seats, namely Aberdeenshire North and Moray East; as well as Boston and Skegness. Given in a General Election scenario 'Don't Know' would not be on the ballot paper, we reallocated these seats to the party in second place. This meant that we awarded Aberdeenshire North and Moray East to the Labour Party; and then Boston and Skegness to the Conservatives in all scenarios and analyses that we performed."
    14. ^ 10,010 sample, 20–26 October 2022; 2,000 sample, 28–30 October 2022.[75] "The MRP poll by Focaldata of 10,010 people, on behalf of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, was conducted about the time of Truss's resignation and updated with an MRP poll of 2,000 people after Sunak took over."[76]
    15. ^ 517 listed; one seat (Clacton) is reported as "Don't Know", but "in reality the seat would be won by Labour", and is therefore added to Labour's projected total seat count.[75]
    16. ^ The Speaker is included in the Labour figure.
    17. ^ This includes the 18 seats in Northern Ireland and 1 other in Great Britain.
    18. ^ The Speaker is included in the Labour figures.
    19. ^ First forecast:
      18 in NI
      1 in GB

      Second forecast:
      18 in NI
      4 in GB

      Third forecast:
      18 in NI
      4 in GB

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    81. ^ Заявлено 179/650 мест.
    82. ^ Заявлено 525/650 мест.
    83. ^ Заявлено 641/650 мест.