2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

The 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 1 in the U.S. state of Iowa, traditionally marking the Republican Party's first nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party held its own Iowa caucuses on the same day.

Ted Cruz was able to defeat Donald Trump in the Iowa Caucus by winning over Evangelical caucus-goers;^[1] Cruz won 51,666 caucus votes or 27.6%, giving him a net gain of one delegate over Trump. Cruz visited all 99 counties of Iowa and held small events.^[2] Cruz outperformed his polling average, which predicted a narrow Trump victory in the caucus.

Following poor performances in the caucuses, Rand Paul,^[3] Mike Huckabee^[4] and Rick Santorum^[5] suspended their campaigns.

Procedure

According to the Republican Party of Iowa's bylaws, if more than one candidate is nominated at the Republican National Convention, all of Iowa's delegates are bound to vote "proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses" on the first ballot, even if the candidate has withdrawn from the race.^[6]The ballot is a blank piece of paper, and the candidates that voters may vote for in the non-binding preference poll included the following:

• Jeb Bush
• Ben Carson
• Chris Christie
• Ted Cruz
• Carly Fiorina
• Jim Gilmore
• John Kasich
• Marco Rubio
• Donald Trump
• Rand Paul
• Rick Santorum
• Mike Huckabee

Forums and debates

November 20, 2015 – Des Moines, IowaThe Presidential Family Forum was held in the Community Choice Credit Union Convention Center in Des Moines, Iowa. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum attended the forum hosted by evangelical Christian advocacy group The Family Leader. It was hosted by politician and political activist Bob Vander Plaats and moderated by political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz.^[7] Protesters interrupted the beginning of the event and were removed by police.^[8]

January 28, 2016 – Des Moines, IowaThe seventh debate was the second debate to air on Fox News. As in Fox's first debate, the moderators were Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace.^[9] This was the last debate before actual voting began with the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016.^[10][11] Due to personality conflicts with Fox News, Donald Trump opted out of the debate.^[12]

Endorsements

Jeb Bush

Former executive branch officials

• Mary Kramer, United States Ambassador to Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean (2004–2006)^[13]

U.S. Representatives

• Greg Ganske, IA-04 (1995–2003)^[14]

State Senators

• Charles Schneider, state senator from the District 22 (2013–present)^[15]

State Representatives

• Ron Jorgensen, state representative from the District 6 (2011–present)^[16]
• Greg Forristall, state representative from the District 22 (2007–present)^[17]
• Zach Nunn, state representative from the District 30 (2015–present)^[18]
• Renee Schulte, Former state representative from the District 37 (2008–2013)^[19]
• Robert Bacon, state representative from the District 48 (2013–Present)^[20]
• Ken Rizer, state representative from the District 68 (2015–present)^[21]
• Dave Heaton, state representative from the District 91 (1995–Present)^[22]
• Linda Miller, state representative from the District 94 (2007–Present)^[23]

Ben Carson

State Representatives

• Rob Taylor, state representative from the District 44 (2013–present)^[24]

Chris Christie

State Representatives

• Jake Highfill, state representative from the District 39 (2013–present)^[25]
• Chip Baltimore, state representative from the District 47 (2011–present)^[26]
• Dave Deyoe, state representative from the District 51 (2007–present)^[27]
• Kraig Paulsen, state representative from the District 67 (2003–present)^[28]
• Gary Carlson, state representative from the District 91 (2015–present)^[29]

Ted Cruz

U.S. Representatives

• Steve King, IA-04 (2003–2021)^[30]

State Senators

• Randy Feenstra, state senator from the 2nd district (2009–Present)^[31]
• Bill Anderson, state senator from the 3rd district (2011–Present)^[32]
• Dennis Guth, state senator from the 4th district (2013-Present)^[33]
• Jason Schultz, state senator from the 9th district (2015–Present)^[34]
• Jake Chapman, state senator from the 10th district (2013–Present)^[35]
• Jerry Behn, state senator from the 24th district (1997–Present)^[36]

State Representatives

• Terry Baxter, state representative from the District 8 (2015–Present)^[37]
• Steven Holt, state representative from the District 12 (2015–Present)^[38]
• Ralph Watts, state representative from the District 19 (2003–Present)^[39]
• Greg Heartsill, state representative from the District 28 (2013–Present)^[40]
• Sandy Salmon, state representative from the District 63 (2013–Present)^[41]
• Larry Sheets, state representative from the District 80 (2013–Present)^[42]

Notable individuals

• Bob Vander Plaats, political activist and president and CEO of The Family Leader^[43]

Carly Fiorina

State Senators

• David Johnson, state senator from the 1st district (2003-Present)^[44]

State Representatives

• Mike May, state representative from the District 6 (2005–2011)^[45]
• Mike Sexton, state representative from the District 7 (2015–present)^[46]
• Clel Baudler, state representative from the District 20 (1999–present)^[47]
• Josh Byrnes, state representative from the District 51 (2011–present)^[48]
• Steven Olson, state representative from the District 83 (2003–present)^[49]
• Ross Paustian, state representative from the District 92 (2015–present)^[50]

John Kasich

State Representatives

• Mary Ann Hanusa, state representative from the District 16 (2011–present)^[51]
• David Sieck, state representative from the District 86 (2015–present)^[52]

Mike Huckabee

State Representatives

• Tedd Gassman, state representative from the District 7 (2013–present)^[53]

Marco Rubio

State Senators

• Rick Bertrand, state senator from the 7th district (2011–present)^[54]
• Tom Shipley, state senator from the 11th district(2015-Present)^[55]
• Jack Whitver, state senator from the 19th district (2011–present)^[56]
• Dan Zumbach, state senator from the 48th district (2013–present)^[57]

State Representatives

• Megan Jones, state representative from the District 6 (2013–Present)^[58]
• John Wills, state representative from the District 10 (2015–Present)^[59]
• Brian Best, state representative from the District 11 (2015–Present)^[60]
• Bobby Kaufmann, state representative from the District 82 (2013–present)^[61]

Newspapers

• The Des Moines Register^[62]
• Sioux City Journal^[63]

Rick Santorum

State Representatives

• Dean Fisher, state representative from the District 53 (2013-Present)^[64]
• Walt Rogers, state representative from the District 60 (2011-Present)^[65]

Donald Trump

State Senators

• Brad Zaun, state senator from the 20th district (2005-Present)^[66]

Withdrawn candidates

Lindsey Graham (Withdrawn)

State Senators

• Tim Kapucian, state senator from the 38th district (2009-Present)^[67]

Bobby Jindal (Withdrawn)

State Representatives

• Matt Windschitl, state representative from the District 17 (2007–present)^[68]

Rick Perry (Withdrawn)

State Representatives

• Dawn Pettengill, state representative from the District 75 (2005-Present)^[69]

Scott Walker (Withdrawn)

State Senators

• Mark Costello, state senator from the 8th district (2015-Present)^[70]
• Jason Schultz, state senator from the 9th district (2015-Present)^[71]
• Julian Garrett, state senator from the 11th district (2013-Present)^[72]
• Amy Sinclair, state senator from the 14th district (2013-Present)^[73]

State Representatives

• John Landon, state representative from the District 37 (2013-Present)^[74]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Polls in 2015

Polls in 2014

Polls in 2013-2012

Results

Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016

  Cruz—40-50%

  Cruz—30-40%

  Cruz—20-30%

  Tied between Cruz and Trump

  Trump—20-30%

  Trump—30-40%

  Trump—40-50%

  Rubio—20-30%

  Rubio—30-40%

Controversy

Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of winning the caucuses using dishonest tactics, such as falsely telling caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out in order to get them to switch their votes to Cruz.^[97] Donald Trump also accused Cruz of "stealing" the Iowa caucuses through fraud.^[98] Trump tweeted, "Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he stole it,"^[99] and "The state of Iowa should disqualify Ted Cruz from the most recent election on the basis that he cheated—a total fraud!"^[100][101]

Exit polls

See also

• 2016 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

References

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External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
• Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Iowa