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2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

The 2024 general election was held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Thirty-two seats were up for election in Wales as the general election occurred after the recently completed boundary review took effect. The Labour Party won a landslide victory of Welsh MPs, gaining six seats for a total of 27. Both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats made gains, taking them to four seats and one seat respectively. The Conservatives lost all thirteen seats they had held previously, leaving the party without Westminster representation from Wales for the first time since 2005.

Election

Date of the election

On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date.[1]

Number of Welsh MPs

Welsh constituencies used in the election, labelled.

The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, mandated the number of seats in Wales be reduced from 40 to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coterminous with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales was responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it was required to abide by this total.

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021.[2] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period.[3] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies.[4] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November.[5] and came into force on 29 November.[6]

Constituencies

Members not standing for re-election

Candidates

Results

By affiliation

By constituency

By affiliate share

Candidates by constituency

Candidates in bold won their respective constituency election.

Opinion polling

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales

Seat projections

Analysis

The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, winning 27 of the 32 seats. In addition to defending all of their seats in the south including around Cardiff and Swansea, Labour reversed many of the Conservative gains in 2019, gaining seats such as Bangor Aberconwy, Clwyd East, Clwyd North, Monmouthshire and Wrexham. Labour also won in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, which covers Montgomeryshire, the only area in Wales which had, until 2024, never elected a Labour MP.[25]

Plaid Cymru won four seats, the same as in 2019, however given boundary changes and the reduction in seats this should be counted as two gains. Plaid Cymru defended Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli with significant majorities, gaining the new seat of Caerfyrddin which had been nominally Conservative in 2019, and gained Ynys Môn from the Conservatives. This was the first time Plaid Cymru had won in Ynys Môn since 2001; it was the most marginal seat in Wales with a majority of 637 votes between Plaid and Conservatives, with Labour in close third place. By the share of the vote (14.8 per cent), Plaid Cymru achieved their best ever result in UK general election.[26]

The Liberal Democrats gained one seat in Wales, Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Outside of briefly holding the predecessor seat following the 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, the Liberal Democrats have not had a seat in Wales since losing Ceredigion in 2017.[27]

The Conservative Party lost every seat in Wales, having won fourteen seats in 2019, the first time since 2001 that Wales had no Conservative MPs. This was despite the Conservatives taking 18.2% of the overall vote and outpolling both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats in terms of votes.[28]

Reform UK was the third largest party in terms of votes with 16.9%, nearly as many votes as the Conservatives and more than both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats; it was also a higher vote share than in England.[29] Reform was the runner-up in thirteen constituencies, coming closest to winning in Llanelli.[30] The Green Party was runner-up in one constituency, Cardiff South and Penarth.[31]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central in the 1997 general election, but lost his seat in 2005; elected for Swansea West in 2010.
  2. ^ Sat as an independent from June 2023.
  3. ^ Sat as an independent from July 2020.
  4. ^ Constituency was abolished and Winter lost the contest to be selected for another seat
  5. ^ Incumbent MP for Islwyn
  6. ^ Was member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East from 2011 to 2016
  7. ^ An MEP for Wales (2019–2020)
  8. ^ Was MP for Ceredigion (2005–2017)
  9. ^ Was not reselected as a candidate
  10. ^ Baynes was the incumbent MP for Clwyd South in Wales, and stood in North Shropshire in England.
  11. ^ Incumbent MP for Swansea East

References

  1. ^ "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
  2. ^ Hayward, Will (19 October 2022). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  3. ^ Masters, Adrian (19 October 2022). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  4. ^ "Wales' new parliamentary constituencies published". Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
  5. ^ "List of Business - 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
  6. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk, The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
  7. ^ "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
  8. ^ "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  9. ^ "David Jones: Former Welsh secretary to retire at next election". BBC News. 20 September 2023.
  10. ^ Stacey, Kiran (1 February 2024). "Christina Rees readmitted to Labour after apology over bullying claims". The Guardian. Rees... announced she would not stand again at the next election...
  11. ^ Brennan, Kevin [@KevinBrennanMP] (27 May 2024). "I'm announcing my decision to stand down as Cardiff West MP after 23 years - thank you to local Labour members and constituents for your friendship and support" (Tweet). Retrieved 28 May 2024 – via Twitter.
  12. ^ "Geraint Davies says he is 'unable' to stand for Labour because of suspension". Express & Star. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  13. ^ "MP cautioned for assaulting his wife confirms he wont be standing for re-election/". Nation.Cymru. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  14. ^ "Conservative MP seeking new seat for next election". BBC News. 22 October 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  15. ^ "Welsh Labour: Frontbench MP beats left-winger in seat battle". BBC News. 7 June 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  16. ^ "Democracy Club Candidates". Democracy Club Candidates. Democracy Club.
  17. ^ In electoral pact with the Labour Party, all candidates are also standing for the Labour Party
  18. ^ "Results of the 2024 General Election in Wales". BBC News.
  19. ^ "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  20. ^ "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Archived from the original on 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  21. ^ "Plaid Cymru: What we know about new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth". 16 June 2023. Archived from the original on 20 November 2023. Retrieved 20 November 2023 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  22. ^ "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
  23. ^ "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  24. ^ "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  25. ^ Jones, Matt (5 July 2024). "General Election 2024: Labour win Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr". The Leader. Retrieved 15 August 2024.
  26. ^ Hayward, Will (5 July 2024). "Why this was an incredible election for Plaid Cymru". Wales Online.
  27. ^ Compton, Karen (6 July 2024). "Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe election result: Lib Dems take seat off Conservatives". www.shropshirestar.com.
  28. ^ Morris, Steven (5 July 2024). "Wipeout for Tories in Wales as Labour takes 27 of 32 seats" – via The Guardian.
  29. ^ D'Urso, Joey [@josephmdurso] (7 July 2024). "Still looking through election results to see if I've missed anything interesting... here's one - Reform got a higher vote share in Wales (16.9%) than England (15.3%)" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 August 2024 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ Masters, Adrian (5 July 2024). "Questions to be asked despite Welsh Labour wins as Reform votes hint at what's to come". ITV Wales. Retrieved 15 August 2024.
  31. ^ Jamshidian, Harry (5 July 2024). "Labour's Stephen Doughty holds Cardiff South and Penarth". Penarth Times. Retrieved 15 August 2024.