An upset is a victory by an underdog team. In the context of the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, a single-elimination tournament, this generally constitutes a lower seeded team defeating a higher-seeded (i.e., higher-ranked) team; a widely recognized upset is one performed by a team ranked substantially lower than its opponent.
This is the list of victories by teams seeded 11 or lower in the first round and second rounds of the tournament, as well as those by teams seeded 8 or 9 against 1 and 7 or 10 against 2 seeds in the second round, since it expanded to 64 teams in 1985; as these low-seeded teams were automatically paired against higher-seeded teams at the start of the tournament, their opening victories are almost always considered upsets (to date only three teams seeded 11 or lower in the first round won as betting favorites, and only one such team won in the first round as a pick 'em). Most victories by these teams in later rounds were usually against better seeded opponents as well. The list also includes victories by teams seeded 8 or lower in the Sweet 16 (the four regional semifinals), teams seeded 7 or lower in the Elite Eight (the four regional finals), and teams seeded 6 or lower in the Final Four. All teams are listed by athletic brand names they used at the time of their wins, which do not always match those in use today.
The NCAA defines a tournament "upset" as a victory by a team seeded 5 or more lines below its defeated opponent.[1]
On March 16, 2018, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) Retrievers became the first 16-seed to upset a 1-seed when they defeated the Virginia Cavaliers 74–54 in the first round;[2] this was followed by the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights defeating the Purdue Boilermakers 63–58 on March 17, 2023.[3]
Best outcomes for low seeds since expansion to 64 teams in 1985:
In 2018, UMBC became the first No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed in the men's tournament, shocking Virginia 74–54. Before this breakthrough, five other 16 seeds lost by 4 or fewer points:
In 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson became the second No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed in the tournament, beating Purdue 63–58.
Despite numerous instances of early-round tournament upsets, only two No. 1 seeds have lost in the first round to a No. 16 seed. However, while seeding is one way of measuring the impact of an upset, prior to the implementation of seeding, point spread was the better determinant of an upset, and a loss by a highly favored team remains for many the definition of "upset". As the NCAA forbids any association with gambling, and point spreads vary depending on the bookie taking the bets, these are unofficial:
This round was called the first round until 2011, when the introduction of the First Four caused the round to be renamed the second round. Starting with the 2016 tournament, it returned to being called the first round. There were eight official first round upsets in 2016, which was the most in tournament history.[9]
Detail between each pair of seeds in this section has been updated as of completion of the 2024 Round of 64, representing 156 games played between each pair.
There have been 2 games where a 16-seed has defeated a 1-seed (1.28%), in the round of 64, since 1985:
There have been 11 games where a 15-seed has defeated a 2-seed (7.05%), in the round of 64, since 1985:[12]
There have been 23 games where a 14-seed has defeated a 3-seed (14.74%), in the round of 64, since 1985:
There have been 33 games where a 13-seed has defeated a 4-seed (21.15%), in the round of 64, since 1985:
There have been 55 games where a 12-seed has defeated a 5-seed (35.26%), in the round of 64, since 1985:
There have been 61 games where an 11-seed has defeated a 6-seed (39.1%), in the round of 64, since 1985:
This round is called the second round. Occasionally, it is referred to as the regional quarterfinals.
This shows all Round of 32 upset victories by teams seeded 11 or lower, continuing their upset victories from the round of 64. This section introduces additional "meeting criteria of team seeded 5 or more lines below its defeated opponent", being all Round of 32 upset victories by teams seeded 8 or 9 against 1 seeds and by teams seeded 7 or 10 against 2 seeds.
No 16 seed has won a second-round game. The only 16 seeds to ever reach the second round are the UMBC Retrievers in 2018, who lost to 9 seed Kansas State 50–43, and the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights in 2023, who lost to 9 seed Florida Atlantic 78–70.
Four of the eleven 15 seeds (36.36%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved an upset victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses. Due to these results, 15 seeds have a winning record (4-2) against 7 seeds, but have never beaten a 10 seed (0-5).
Two of the twenty-three 14 seeds (9.09%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved an upset victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
Seven of the 14 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 lost to 11 seeds in the round of 32. Two of the sixteen 14 seeds who faced 6 seeds advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (12.5%).
Six of the thirty-three 13 seeds (18.18%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved a victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
Twelve of the 13 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 faced a 12 seed that had also advanced from the round of 64 due to an upset. Against 12 seeds, 13 seeds are 3-9 (25%). Three of the twenty-one 13 seeds who have faced 5 seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (14.29%).
‡ Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by only 1 seed line.
Twenty-two of the fifty-five 12 seeds (40%) who advanced from the round of 64 also won in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
Nine of these victories were against lower seeded teams that had also advanced from the round of 64 due to upsets; thus, these nine victories do not count as upsets, and have been grouped here in a table separate from the thirteen upset wins by 12 seeds in the second round. Thirteen of the forty-three 12 seeds who have faced 4 seeds have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (30.23%).
Twenty-seven of the sixty-one 11 seeds (44.26%) who advanced from the round of 64 also won in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
Seven of these victories were against lower seeded teams that had also advanced from the round of 64 due to upsets; thus, these seven victories do not count as upsets, and have been grouped here in a table separate from the twenty upset wins by 11 seeds in the second round. Twenty of the fifty-four 11 seeds who have faced 3 seeds advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (37.04%).
Twenty-four of the sixty 10 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 (40%) also won in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
Five of these victories were against lower seeded teams that had also advanced from the round of 64 due to upsets; thus, these six victories do not count as upsets, and have been grouped here in a table separate from the nineteen upset wins by 10 seeds in the second round. Nineteen of the fifty-five 10 seeds who faced 2 seeds advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (34.55%).
Eight of the eighty-one 9 seeds (9.88%) who advanced from the round of 64 also won in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
Two of these victories were against a lower seeded team that had also advanced from the round of 64 due to upset; thus, these second-round victories do not count as upsets, and has been shown here in a table separate from the six upset wins by 9 seeds in the second round. Six of the seventy-nine 9 seeds who have faced a 1 seed advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (7.59%).
Sixteen of the seventy-five 8 seeds (21.33%) who advanced from the round of 64 also achieved an upset victory in the round of 32. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
Twenty-nine of the ninety-six 7 seeds who advanced from the round of 64 (30.21%) also won in the round of 32.
Two of these 7 seeds (Temple in 1993 and Florida in 2012) advanced to the Sweet Sixteen after playing against 15 seeds that also advanced from the round of 64 due to upsets, while four 7 seeds have lost to 15 seeds, meaning that 7 seeds have a losing record against 15 seeds (2-4). Twenty-seven of the ninety 7 seeds who faced 2 seeds advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (30%). This means that 7 seeds have a lower winning percentage in the round of 32 than 10 seeds do.
The Sweet Sixteen are the eight pairs of teams that meet in the Regional semifinals.
One of the four 15 seeds (25%) who advanced from the round of 32 also achieved an upset victory in the Sweet Sixteen, that being Saint Peter’s in 2022. Seed of the team they defeated is in parentheses.
Although two 14 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen, neither of them won their games in this round. In 1986, Cleveland State lost to 7 seed Navy by only a single point.
Although six 13 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen, none of them won their games in this round. The closest margin of defeat happened in 1998, when Valparaiso lost to 8 seed Rhode Island by 6 points.
Two of the twenty-two 12 seeds (9.09%) who advanced from the round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
Interestingly, with these two victories, a 12 seed has never lost against an 8 seed.[21]
‡ Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
Ten of the twenty-seven 11 seeds (37.04%) who advanced from the round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that four of these were upset victories (separated by more than 4 seed lines).
‡ Not officially an upset because the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
Nine of the twenty-four 10 seeds (37.5%) who advanced from the round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that four of these were upset victories (separated by more than 4 seed lines).
† Not an upset victory, as the 10 seed defeated a lower seed.
‡ Not officially an upset, as the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
Five of the eight 9 seeds (62.5%) who advanced from the round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that one of these was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines).
† Not an upset victory, as the 9 seed defeated a lower seed.
‡ Not officially an upset, as the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
The Elite Eight are the four pairs of teams that meet in the Regional Finals.
The only 15 seed who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen, Saint Peter's in 2022, was defeated in the Elite Eight by eight-seed North Carolina, 69-49.
Although two 12 seeds have advanced from the Sweet Sixteen, both were defeated in the Elite Eight: Missouri to second-seeded Oklahoma, 81-75 in 2002, and Oregon State to second-seeded Houston, 67-61 in 2021.
Six of the ten 11 seeds who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that five of these were upset victories (separated by more than 4 seed lines). None of those teams would go on to win in the Final Four.
‡ Not officially an upset, as the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
One of the nine 10 seeds who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight. Seed of the team they defeated is in parentheses, showing that this was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines). The team did not win in the Final Four.
Two of the five 9 seeds who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that these were upset victories (separated by more than 4 seed lines). Neither team won in the Final Four.
Six of the nine 8 seeds who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that three of these were upset victories (separated by more than 4 seed lines).
† Not an upset victory, as the 8 seed defeated a lower seed.
‡ Not officially an upset. as the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
Three 7 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses.
‡ Not officially an upset, as the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
Three 6 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Seed of the team they defeated are in parentheses, showing that two of these were upset victories (separated by more than 4 seed lines).
‡ Not officially an upset, as the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
The Final Four are the winners of the four Regional Finals.
No team seeded 9 or lower has ever won a game in the Final Four. Notable close losses include a four-point loss by (9) Wichita State in 2013 to top-seed and eventual champions Louisville, while two other teams lost on buzzer-beating shots: (11) UCLA to (1) Gonzaga, 93-90 in overtime in 2021; and (9) Florida Atlantic to (5) San Diego State, 71-72 in 2023.
Four of the six 8 seeds who advanced from the Elite Eight also won in the Final Four. The seeds of the teams they defeated are in parentheses, showing that three were upset victories (separated by more than 4 seed lines).
† Not an upset victory, as the 8 seed defeated a lower seed.
One of the three 7 seeds who advanced from the Elite Eight also won in the Final Four. Seed of the team they defeated is in parentheses, showing that this was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines).
Two 6 seeds have advanced to the national championship game. Seeds of the Final Four team they defeated are in parentheses.
‡ Not officially an upset, as the teams were separated by fewer than 5 seed lines.
Only one of the four 8 seeds who advanced from the Final Four won the national championship, the lowest seed ever to do so. Seed of the team they defeated is in parentheses, showing that this was an upset victory (separated by more than 4 seed lines).
The only 7 seed to advance from the Final Four went on to win the national championship. Seed of the team they defeated is in parentheses.
† Not an upset victory, as the 7 seed defeated a lower seed.
One of the two 6 seeds who advanced from the Final Four won the national championship.
UMBC (The University of Maryland Baltimore County) scored the biggest upset in the history of the NCAA tournament, beating top overall seed Virginia 74–54 Friday night, and becoming the first 16 seed to win a game in 136 tries.
Five years and one day since UMBC became the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed, FDU pulled off the unthinkable yet again, knocking off 1-seed Purdue in a 63-58 shock upset on Friday. 16-seeds are now 2-150 all-time since the men's tournament expanded to 64 teams.