stringtranslate.com

Allan Lichtman

Allan Jay Lichtman (/ˈlɪktmən/; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian. He has taught at American University in Washington, D.C., since 1973.

Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.[1] Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of most U.S. presidential elections since 1984, with the exceptions of 2000, where he predicted an Al Gore victory (but did say his model only pertained to the popular vote), and 2016, where he predicted a Donald Trump popular-vote victory and afterward revised his model to note it picked the Electoral College winner.[2][3][4] He ran for the U.S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006 and finished sixth in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.[5][6][7]

Early life and education

Lichtman was born in the Brownsville neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City. He graduated from Stuyvesant High School. Lichtman is Jewish. [8][9] He received his B.A. degree from Brandeis University in history in 1967, and graduated Phi Beta Kappa and magna cum laude while also running track and wrestling. In 1973, Lichtman received his Ph.D. from Harvard University as a Graduate Prize Fellow, also in history.[10]

Career

Teaching

Allan Lichtman in 2010

Lichtman began teaching at American University in 1973, rising to chair of the history department, and was named scholar/professor of the year in 1993.[11]

Lichtman has testified as an expert witness on civil rights in more than 70 cases for the U.S. Department of Justice and for civil rights groups such as the NAACP, the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund and Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund, and the Southern Poverty Law Center. He also consulted for Vice President Al Gore and Senator Ted Kennedy. Lichtman assisted the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation into voting irregularities in Florida during the 2000 election,[12] submitting his statistical analysis of balloting problems. He concluded, "there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates".[13]

In the early 1980s, while living in California as a visiting professor at the California Institute of Technology, Lichtman had a 17-episode stint on the game show Tic Tac Dough. He won $100,000 on the show.[14]

Author and commentator

Lichtman has provided commentary for networks and cable channels such as CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News.[15][16][17] He is best known for the "keys" system presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. The system uses 13 historical factors to predict whether the popular vote in the election for president of the United States will be won by the nominee of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the president is the nominee). The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, which claims to predict earthquakes. The system correctly predicted the popular vote winner in every election from 1984 to 2012, including a correct prediction of Gore as the popular vote winner in 2000.[18] Lichtman incorrectly predicted that Donald Trump would win the popular vote in 2016,[3] but in the 2020 presidential election, he correctly predicted that Democrat Joe Biden would defeat Trump in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.[19][20]

In 2013, Lichtman and Richard Breitman wrote FDR and the Jews, which portrays Franklin D. Roosevelt as a pragmatic leader who, despite political constraints, made significant effort to aid Jews during World War II, balancing domestic priorities and the fear of antisemitic backlash.[21] Lichtman and Breitman received the 2013 National Jewish Book Award for the book.[22]

In 2017, Lichtman wrote The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.[5][6][7] The Financial Times gave it a favorable review, writing: "Lichtman's powerful book is a reminder that we are only at the start of the Trump investigations."[5] The Washington Post called it "striking to see the full argument unfold".[6] New York Journal of Books recommended it as a resource "if you are a member of Congress trying to grapple with all that this administration has wrought".[23] The Hill wrote: "Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year."[24] CBC News consulted law scholars who said Lichtman's prediction of impeachment was unlikely with a Republican-controlled House of Representatives.[25] The Democratic-controlled House impeached Trump on December 18, 2019, and the Senate acquitted him February 5, 2020.

In 2020, Lichtman published Repeal the Second Amendment, in which he argues that the only way to solve the U.S. gun violence epidemic is to repeal the Second Amendment.[26][27]

As of 2023, Lichtman hosts weekly live streams, called Lichtman Live, on his YouTube channel.[28][29]

2000 presidential election

In 2001, Lichtman produced a supplemental report to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights examining the racial impact of ballot rejection in Florida's 2000 presidential election.[30]

2006 U.S. Senate race in Maryland

Lichtman announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Maryland in the 2006 election to replace Senator Paul Sarbanes; in a playful opening television ad, he pledged not to be a "conventional politician" and jumped into the C&O Canal in a business suit.[31] Lichtman was seen as a long-shot candidate with little support.[32] He criticized front-runner U.S. Representative Ben Cardin for his votes to fund the Iraq War.[32] When the League of Women Votersdid not invite Lichtman to the Maryland Public Television debate, he and two other excluded candidates, Josh Rales and Dennis F. Rasmussen, protested outside the Baltimore County television studio; Lichtman and his wife were arrested after a confrontation with a security guard.[33] In 2006, both were acquitted on all charges.[34]

Lichtman lost the primary election to Cardin, receiving 6,919 votes (1.2%) and finishing sixth in a field of 18. In October 2012, The Washington Post reported that he was still paying off a mortgage he took out to help fund his campaign.[35]

2024 presidential election

In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, amid widening calls by Democratic Party representatives, members, voters, and supporters for incumbent president Joe Biden to withdraw from the race in favor of another candidate with "better chances",[36][37] Lichtman called that demand a "foolish, destructive escapade", accusing "pundits and the media" of "pushing" Democrats into a losing choice. He added that "all" those calling for Biden's resignation have "zero track record" of predicting election outcomes.[38] On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race but would serve the remainder of his term.[39] Vice President Kamala Harris was nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate the next month. On September 5, Lichtman predicted that Harris will win the election.[40]

Awards and honors

Lichtman has received numerous awards from American University. Most notably, he was named Distinguished Professor of History in 2011 and Outstanding Scholar/Teacher for 1992–93, the highest faculty award at the school. Honors include:

Books

References

  1. ^ "The Keys to the White House", Madison Books, 1996, ISBN 1568330618
  2. ^ Stevenson, Peter W. (2016-09-23). "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2024-06-16.
  3. ^ a b Emerson, Lars & Lovito, Michael (2024-06-19). "Allan Lichtman is Famous for Correctly Predicting the 2016 Election. The Problem? He Didn't". The Postrider. Retrieved 2024-06-27.
  4. ^ Allan J. Lichtman (Oct 2016). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. 80 (5): 256–258.
  5. ^ a b c Luce, Edward (April 20, 2017), "The case for impeaching Donald Trump", Financial Times, archived from the original on December 11, 2022, retrieved June 5, 2017
  6. ^ a b c Lozada, Carlos (April 13, 2017), "The case for impeaching President Donald J. Trump. (Too soon?)", The Washington Post, retrieved June 5, 2017
  7. ^ a b Willis, Jay (April 17, 2017), "The Trump Impeachment Is Coming Soon, Says Allan Lichtman", GQ magazine, retrieved June 5, 2017
  8. ^ "Jewish Prof. who called every election since 1984 predicts Biden will win". The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com. November 2, 2020.
  9. ^ Lichtman, Allan; Vittert, Liberty; Meng, Xiao-Li (July 15, 2020). "Post-Election Interview With Allan Lichtman". Harvard Data Science Review. 2 (4). doi:10.1162/99608f92.baaa8f68/989cfb74 – via hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu.
  10. ^ "Curriculum Vitae: Allan J. Lichtman" (PDF). Retrieved 2018-03-14.
  11. ^ "Faculty Profile: Allan Lichtman". American University. Retrieved 2018-03-14.
  12. ^ "Voting Irregularities in Florida During the 2000 Presidential Election". U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. June 2001. Archived from the original on September 23, 2006. Retrieved September 27, 2006.
  13. ^ "Supplemental Report on the Racial Impact of the Rejection of Ballots Cast in Florida's 2000 Presidential Election and in Response to the Statement of the Dissenting Commissioners and Report by Dr. John Lott Submitted to the United States Senate Committee on Rules in July 2001". U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. July 2001. Archived from the original on September 24, 2006. Retrieved September 27, 2006.
  14. ^ Breslev, Dia, "AU Prof Gets the 'Dough Lichtman Wins $100,000," American University Eagle, February 27, 1981.
  15. ^ "Fox News broadcast". Fox News. 24 March 2015.
  16. ^ "MSNBC broadcast". NBC News.
  17. ^ "CNN broadcast". YouTube.[dead YouTube link]
  18. ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (October 2000). "Election 2000: The Keys Point to Gore" (PDF). Social Education. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2017-10-27. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  19. ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (2020-08-05). "Opinion | He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-08-05.
  20. ^ Brandeis, Alumni (October 25, 2020), "This Historian Has a Fool-Proof System for Predicting the Next President", [Brandeis Website], retrieved October 25, 2020
  21. ^ "Amazon.com".
  22. ^ "Harvard University Press: FDR and the Jews", Hup.Harvard.edu
  23. ^ Smilke Jr., Basil (April 17, 2017), "The Case for Impeachment", New York Journal of Books, retrieved June 5, 2017
  24. ^ Budowsky, Brent (April 20, 2017), "How far is too far? The Trump impeachment debate begins now.", The Hill, retrieved June 5, 2017
  25. ^ Kwong, Matt (April 18, 2017), "Analysis - 'Prediction prof' who called Trump's win now predicts his impeachment, but scholars aren't convinced", CBC News, retrieved June 5, 2017
  26. ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (August 6, 2019), "Repeal the Second Amendment to save Americans from gun violence'", The Hill
  27. ^ Lichtman, Allan J. (June 24, 2022), "The Supreme Court and the Second Amendment hoax", New York Daily News
  28. ^ "Channel:@AllanLichtmanYouTube". YouTube. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  29. ^ Lichtman, Allan (July 20, 2023). "Twitter Post". Twitter.
  30. ^ "Appendix X: Supplemental Report by Dr. Allan J. Lichtman on the Racial Impact of the Rejection of Ballots Cast in Florida's 2000 Presidential Election and in Response to the Statement of the Dissenting Commissioners and Report by Dr. John Lott Submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on Rules and Administration in July 2001". www.usccr.gov.
  31. ^ Ann Marimow, Lichtman's Big Splash, The Washington Post (March 10, 2006).
  32. ^ a b Matthew Mosk & John Wagner, Long-Shot Candidates May Harm Cardin, The Washington Post (July 24, 2006).
  33. ^ Stephanie Desmon (August 31, 2006). "Excluded Candidates Cry Foul on Debate". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on June 22, 2021.
  34. ^ Allan Lichtman, Karyn Strickler, acquitted in 2006 TV studio incident, The Washington Post (September 1, 2006). [dead link]
  35. ^ Reilly, Corinne (October 2, 2012). "In congressional races, underdogs abound, but why". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 5, 2012.
  36. ^ Wong, Scott; Vitali, Ali; Kaplan, Rebecca (July 19, 2024). "13 more Democrats, including Pelosi allies, call for Biden to exit 2024 election". NBC News. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  37. ^ Irwin, Lauren (July 19, 2024). "Major Democratic donor tells Biden to choose 'vanity or virtue'". The Hill. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  38. ^ "'Foolish, self-destructive escapade': History professor slams Democrats pushing for Biden to drop out". CNN. July 21, 2024. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  39. ^ "Biden abruptly changed his mind about staying in 2024 race on Sunday, source says". Reuters. July 21, 2024. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  40. ^ Tait, Robert (2024-09-05). "Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  41. ^ a b "National Book Critics Circle: 2008 Nonfiction Finalist White Protestant Nation, by Allan J. Lichtman – Critical Mass Blog". Archived from the original on February 19, 2009.
  42. ^ Schuessler, Jennifer (March 8, 2013). "Book 'FDR and the Jews' Looks at Roosevelt-Holocaust Issues". The New York Times.
  43. ^ Zuckerman, Laurence (17 July 2013). "FDR's Jewish Problem". The Nation.
  44. ^ Oshinsky, David (April 5, 2013). "'FDR and the Jews,' by Richard Breitman and Allan J. Lichtman". The New York Times.
  45. ^ "Repeal the Second Amendement by Allan J. Lichtman". Kirkus Reviews.

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Allan Lichtman.