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2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.

Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign.[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.[2][3][4]

Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points.[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress.[6][7] Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Mark Kelly
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S Attorneys
Local officials
  • John Giles, mayor of Mesa (2014–) (Republican)[12]
Organizations

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Brnovich
Individuals
Newspapers
Jim Lamon
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Former[clarification needed]
Blake Masters
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Rejected by candidate
Justin Olson
Organizations
  • Stand for Health Freedom[65]

Polling

Aggregate polls
Graphical summary
Hypothetical polling

Results

Republican primary results by county
  Masters
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Lamon
  •   30-40%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million.[68] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.[69]

With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups began to increase the amount of money they were spending on the race, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate.[70] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.[71]

Predictions

Debates

Endorsements

Mark Kelly (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Attorneys
State legislators
Local officials
  • Cathy Carlat, mayor of Peoria (2015–present) (Republican)[12]
  • Jack Dillenberg, mayor of Jerome (2020–present) (Republican)[12]
  • John Giles, Mayor of Mesa (2014–present) (Republican)[12]
  • Donald Huish, mayor of Douglas (2016–present) (Republican)[12]
  • Paul Johnson, former mayor of Phoenix (1990–1994) and Democratic candidate for Governor of Arizona in 1994 and 1998 (Independent)[85]
  • Craig McFarland, mayor of Casa Grande (2016–present) (Republican)[12]
  • David Ortega, mayor of Scottsdale (2021–present) (Independent)[12]
  • Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson, Arizona (2019–present)[84]
  • Chip Wilson, Mayor of Apache Junction (2018–present) (Republican)[12]
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Blake Masters (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Rejected by candidate

Polling

Aggregate polls
Graphical summary
Hypothetical polling
Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Results

By county

By congressional district

Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[128]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b Paveza with <1%
  4. ^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
  5. ^ Response with candidates' job titles
  6. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  10. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  14. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  17. ^ "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  21. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  22. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  23. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
  5. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
  7. ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
  8. ^ Poll conducted for Univision.
  9. ^ Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
  10. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
  12. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters
  13. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters
  14. ^ This poll was sponsored by America Next
  15. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  16. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund

References

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  4. ^ a b "Libertarian Senate candidate Marc Victor drops out of race". ABC 15 Arizona. November 1, 2022.
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  104. ^ @DrPaulGosar (August 31, 2022). "We need a solid leader like @bgmasters in the Senate if we are to save this country. He has my full support" (Tweet). Retrieved September 3, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  110. ^ @DougDucey (August 6, 2022). "As co-chairman of the Republican Governors Association, our organization is already active on the airwaves supporti…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  111. ^ Cowling, Mark (September 26, 2022). "Masters travels to Pinal to receive Lamb's endorsement". Pinal Central. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  112. ^ a b Sievers, Caitlin (September 13, 2022). "AZ Republicans plead with Mitch McConnell to spend millions of dollars to help Blake Masters". AZMIRROR. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  113. ^ a b Ecarma, Caleb (August 16, 2022). "WHITE EXTREMISTS HAVE FOUND THEIR GUY FOR THE SENATE: BLAKE MASTERS". Vanity Fair. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
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  116. ^ Tuccille, J. D. (October 14, 2022). "In Arizona, Libertarian Party Senate Candidate Polls at 15 Percent". Reason.com. Retrieved October 27, 2022.
  117. ^ "LAW ENFORCEMENT BACKS REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES". Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  118. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  119. ^ "CAP Action's Endorsements for the 2022 General Election!" (PDF). Center for Arizona Policy Action. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  120. ^ "Why You and Other Arizonans should vote for Blake Masters". The Conservative Caucus.
  121. ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Blake Masters in Arizona U.S. Senate Race". August 3, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  122. ^ "Arizona's Small Businesses Endorse Blake Masters for U.S. Senate". September 22, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  123. ^ "National Right to Life Endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate Race". August 9, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  124. ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Arizona". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  125. ^ "Defend Freedom. Defeat Mark Kelly". NRA-PVF.
  126. ^ "ENDORSEMENTS". Turning Point Action. Retrieved September 26, 2022.
  127. ^ "2022 General Election Statewide Canvass" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2022.
  128. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

External links

Official campaign websites